I currently am living in Southern California, about 35 miles east of downtown Los Angeles. I frequently drive further east into the adjoining city of Rancho Cucamonga for shopping or other activities (recently, jury duty!). A normal person would take the freeway or the main east-west commercial artery, the old Route 66. But being interested in urban patterns, I occassionally will drive on other through streets that run mainly through residential areas. I had certainly seen numbers of apartment complexes, but on one of these explorations I was especially struck by the continuous line of apartments. Not exactly stereotypical suburbia.
First, a little background on Rancho Cucamonga. This is a very new city, largely developed since the 1970s. When I lived in Southern California in the mid–1970s, when driving through this area on the freeway, one passed through miles of vineyards. This was the last undeveloped gap between Los Angeles and San Bernardino to be filled in, as you can see on these maps for 1970 and 2010 of census tracts which I classified as urban for my research:
Urban census tracts in the Los Angeles area in 1970 (Rancho Cucamonga outlined in red).
Urban census tracts in the Los Angeles area in 2010 (Rancho Cucamonga outlined in red).
The popuation of the city of Rancho Cucamonga was 55,000 at the 1980 census and 177,000 according to the 2016 census estimate. No earlier populations are reported as the city was only incorporated in 1977!
Suburban residential development is generally associated with large expanses of single-family housing units on medium- to large-size lots. Some suburbs do have some apartments, but the general impression is that single-family housing dominates. In Rancho Cucamonga in 2015, only 62 percent of the housing units are detached single-family houses. So nearly 40 percent of the housing does not fit the suburban stereotype.
The overall population density for the city in 2016 was 4,430 persons per square mile, certainly more than many suburbs. But even this is misleadingly low. The city still has significant amounts of vacant land and has large areas developed with industrial uses, mainly for warehouse and distribution activities. (The broader area has developed as a huge distribution center, handling many of the millions of containers that come through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.)
A better picture of the level of residential densities can be seen by looking at densities in individual census tracts, some of which will naturally be more residential and more completely developed than others. My research (using 2000 tract boundaries) has 9 census tracts within or predominantly within the City of Rancho Cucamonga. For several reasons, I have chosen to focus on housing units and housing unit densities rather than population densities for my research. The two census tracts with the highest housing unit densities in 2010 have densities of 3,330 and 2,835 units per square mile. Since population densities are more commonly used and are thus more familiar, these can be estimated by using the national average of 2.34 persons per housing unit. This gives estimated population densities for these tracts of 7,791 and 6,634 persons per square mile. The denser of the two tracts has a population density far greater than the overall density of the densest Urbanized Area in the U.S., Los Angeles. Both are denser than the New York Urbanized Area.
There is, of course, no standard criterion specifying what are “suburban” densities as opposed to “urban” densities. I believe that for a variety of reasons, no urbanists want to go there, as there would be no consensus. But an interesting article on the FiveThirtyEight website tried to get at this, reporting on work by the real estate website Trulia that surveyed people asking whether where they lived was urban, suburban, or rural. They also asked for ZIP codes and compared the responses to characteristics of the ZIP codes. The study found, perhaps not surprisingly, that the best predictor of how people described where they lived was the population density of the ZIP code. And the dividing line between suburban and urban was 2,213 households per square mile (or by my estimation of population density, 5,178 persons per square mile). Using that criterion, the two densest tracts in Rancho Cucamonga could easily be considered urban as opposed to suburban, and two more, with over 1,900 units per square mile, come close. (I need to acknowledge that their use of ZIP codes could have produced a lower value than if tracts could have been used.)
The bottom line is that this very recent development in Rancho Cucamonga does not look like the traditional idea of suburbia with single-family homes on spacious lots.