Tag Archives: urban area size

The negative exponential model and the size of cities

Researchers have long noted the tendency for densities to decline as a negative exponential function of distance from the center. They have looked at declines in the density gradient over time as a measure of decentralization in urban areas. They have noted the relationships of the estimated parameters of the model–the density gradient and the density at the center–to a variety of characteristics of urban areas, including, naturally, the size of the area. The consistent finding has been that the gradients tend to be smaller for larger urban areas, while the central densities tend to be larger.

Consider the relationships among the three–the gradient, the central density, and the size of the urban area. If density declines with distance following the negative exponential model, these three values must necessarily be mathematically related. But what affects what? It seems reasonable to believe that the size of the urban area is primarily affected by factors other than the parameters of the negative exponential model.

But what about the model parameters? Housing is long lasting and once established, the patterns in developed areas can remain remarkably stable for many decades. The density of urban development was much higher before widespread use of the automobile. And it turns out that the central densities are very strongly related to the sizes of urban areas in 1910. So it may not be unreasonable to conclude that, at least to some extent the density gradient is determined by the central density and the size of the urban area.

Solving for the mathematical relationship between the gradient, central density, and size yields a somewhat complex expression. However, a simplified approximation can be used. This approximation has the density gradient being directly proportional to the square root of the central density and inversely proportional to the square root of the size of the urban area.

As described in an earlier post and in a paper, I had used my urban patterns data to estimate the parameters of the negative exponential model for large urban areas in the United States from 1950 to 2010. It was straightforward to test for the conformity with the expected relationships among the density gradient, central density, and the size of the urban area. The gradient was indeed approximately inversely proportional to the size of the area, as expected. And the gradient did increase with the central density, though the proportionality was closer to the density itself rather than the square root. It may be possible that this is the result of the fact that the census tract densities in my data (and used by most other researchers) are measures of gross density including nonresidential uses, streets, and vacant land and are therefore lower than the net residential densities within the residential areas alone.

More information on this analysis, including the mathematical derivation of the relationship among the 3 values, is in the paper “Negative Exponential Model Parameters and the Size of Large Urban Areas in the U.S., 1950–2010,” which can be downloaded here.